The US election is relevant for everyone. The presidential election of November 8 may be a landmark election that will set, at least for one generation, the course of this country´s future and its relationship with the rest of the world.
You may argue that the U.S. electoral game comes down to raising lots of money and spend it on political marketing, and therefore this election will change nothing, despite its high estimated cost of about $5 billion dollars in a campaign that likely will become a circus.
In the Democratic Party, the path seems clear: Hillary Clinton is the clear favorite to win the nomination since the beginning of the process of the primaries and internal elections in various states.
Wife and political partner of Bill Clinton, the most popular living ex president, Hillary has won one election (for the Senate) and was defeated in 2008 in a primary to which also entered as clear favorite. Now again, despite Sanders and Warren, Hillary still seems the strongest option.
But despite the obvious –her possible role as the first woman ever to be elected President of the United States, she hardly will be consider as the new option in town. And that consideration is not only related with the age factor. Since January 1992 when she moved to the White House, Hillary represents the new establishment.
In a race that normally vote some 130 million people (about half of the electorate), the dispute for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, will be concentrated in a fierce battle for the conquest of specific segments of the electoral market, in very specific places. Neither California or New York, nor Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma or Tennessee are expected to be contested states.
In a country where the rules of the electoral system are designed to favor the fifty-fifty and considering that over 70 percent of those who do actually vote are white, is more or less obvious that for Hillary being the candidate of ethnic minorities is not enough. Nor, of course, being the candidate of progressive America, or even being the candidate of the party of President Obama.
With better image outside of the country than inside, Obama is a character that polarizes. Despite his doctoral poses moderate tone, Barack Hussein Obama was always much more than what the extreme right of his country could tolerate.
In this context, the revolution inside the Republican Party jumps in to the scenario. Like him or not, it is clear here that the main character in this play is Donald Trump.
Undoubtedly, the major factor in the recent disruption in American politics has been the real estate entrepreneur and television star. Based on personal insults, extraordinary handling of media scenarios and an open contempt for almost all minorities (women, veterans, immigrants, Muslims, etc.), Donald has managed to galvanize the most radical segment of the American right. The famous “crazies” as John McCain, the Republican Senator legendary, describe them.
With main flag of his campaign the hatred of immigrants and clearly fascist positions that include his rejection of all Muslims, Trump ended his year at the top of all polls as the favorite by a wide margin to win the Republican nomination. The choice of Ted Cruz, another extremist would be, in essence, the same character, but with a different hairstyle.
That’s where the chances for Hillary Clinton and his party could be even better. Beginning with the quasi-forced support of Latino voters and others minorities, a campaign oriented to seduce the voter at the center and, at the same time, is also capable of attracting some of the huge anti-establishment energy that permeates that define this historic moment, her win is guaranteed.
Unless, of course, the Donald factor is able to create a wide collective craziness that could win him enough minds and souls, as already happened in Germany around 80 years ago.
