Let’s face it: Yes, Mr. Donald J. Trump does have a real chance of becoming the next president of the United States.
In an ideal world, or even in almost any reasonable scenario, it would be impossible for a character like Donald J. Trump to win the presidential election. However…
Symptom of the of social annoyance of our time and the rearrangements in the tectonic plates of global power, Trump has managed to stir the worst prejudices of broad sectors of American society and from there to control the media narrative and therefore became a real option for an out of the box change against the conventional candidacy of Hillary Clinton.
The scenario of a possible Trump’s victory is based on three main factors: a virtual tie in the polls with the Democratic candidate, an electoral system that rewards media popularity as the supreme virtue and the fact that he has the personal ability to spend hundreds of millions of dollars needed to tip the balance in the advertising race.
Hillary Clinton is, by far, the best-qualified person to occupy the White House. Nobody dares to question her capabilities to lead the formidable American military power. She has accredited herself as a master negotiator in her more than 130 business trips abroad. Her credentials as the standard bearer of the left wing agenda inside the White House during the years of economic prosperity of the mandate of her husband, allow her to be the best option to address the structural problem of economic inequality of today. On the issue of gender equality, she is obviously the best card possible. And yet, she clearly leaves much to be desired.
Beyond her health issues, or her historic distant relationship with Mexico and Hispanic or African American voters, the main problem of the candidacy of Hillary Clinton is that in the field of the show business, where Mr. Trump is a true giant. Rivaled by his rudeness and radical figures like Hitler or Mussolini, the candidate of the Republican Party is, as those, a master in the domain of the stage and media management.
If it is true that in a close race, the best candidate does not always win, Hillary is in serious trouble.
The bold bet of the President of Mexico (naive?) to opened the doors of Los Pinos to Mr. Trump is a sign of recognition that in the world of realpolitik, anyone can win the US election.
Simplifying a bit, you might expect Trump to win the debates. The way he crushed and practically wiped out their opponents in the primaries G.O.P. does not bode well for Hillary Clinton. Bright, with a much greater political experience, exceptional support team once on a stage, and where gestures and posturing count much more than proposals, clearly Mr. Trump arrives as favorite.
Hillary’s opportunity, however, lies in her ability to motivate a broad participation among social groups that traditionally do not vote in large numbers. Of course, Latinos first. Although her strength is concentrated in large states where Democrats will win anyway –California and New York– the Hispanic vote in other places- ¿ingénue – will be critical; including Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin and Ohio.
As it has been fully accredited in the presidential election of 2000, in a U.S. Presidential election anything can happen. The presidency was defined by just 537 votes (out of 100 million), and this time it is possible that the outcome of these elections will also be very close. Trump relies on the same tsunami of social nuisance that gave victory to Brexit in England, and mobilized the radical right elsewhere in Europe and other regions of the world.
Therefore, the secret ingredient in the magic formula to stop Trump´s hate promise is this, participation; as easy as that, as complicated as that.
