With the highest citizen participation in its history, the presidential election remains without a clear and definitive winner. Joe Biden says he is confident that the final count will give him victory, while Donald Trump denounces fraud and promises to defend his victory in court. The crossroads could hardly be more complicated. It is worth sharing a story from the first of the two most likely scenarios.

Scenario One:

United States: the promise is renewed

Donald Trump represents a historic setback with profound and painful consequences. However, the project of a nation of freedoms and inclusion managed to defeat the Lord of selfishness, banality, and hatred.

With citizen participation of almost 160 million votes, Joseph Biden is emerging as the winner in an election marked by the pandemic, a deep economic crisis, and the deepest ideological gap within American society since the Civil War.

In a scenario not seen in the last 100 years, two out of every three citizens voted. In-person or from a distance, their participation is, in itself, a powerful message of America’s return to the Obama-Biden era rhetoric of hope.

Deeply divided – demography is destiny – the country is drawn as a map of the two blue coasts (Democrats), where half of the population lives in cities and wealth and knowledge generation is concentrated. This, in the midst of a kind of red ocean (Republicans), where isolation reigns and prejudices are more easily spread.

The rules of the political system of this country – indirect election by groups of delegates by each of the vast majority of its 50 states – were tilted early in the evening of the historic Tuesday, November 3, in favor of the Democratic candidate.

The final number of the 270 electoral votes was outlined since the early hours of Wednesday, when in addition to Arizona, Biden took the lead in Wisconsin and Michigan.

Consistent with his incongruity, President Trump tried to skimp on acknowledging his defeat. Probably, with the idea of being able to capitalize on the frustration and hatred of those four years earlier who bought his exclusive and primitive vision of returning to the country its supposed greatness of the middle of the last century.

As is always the case in modern democratic systems, no victory is final and no defeat forever – despite Mr. Trump’s authoritarian and pseudo-fascist temptations – having limited his term to a single term is certainly reason to celebrate. .

New Promises

“You´re Fired!”

Beyond applauding the decision of a tight majority of citizens to fire from the White House (+2 percent in the popular vote) the host of a mediocre reality show that came to power through insults and lies, it would be enough innocent to assume that everything will change with the arrival of a 77-year-old professional politician.

Perhaps yes, it is worth claiming soon that whoever once referred to a group of undocumented workers with a very clear “you are also Americans”, complies, by early May 2021, with the construction of a legal avenue for those 11 million people who have already made their home in this country.

Also, it will be fair to demand the return of the United States to world leadership in environmental causes. With the consequent great structural reform to move from the era of hydrocarbons to the renewable energies that are so urgent.

The promise of a global campaign around the “Buy American” could be more than an electoral flag, if and only if, it means accelerating the commitment to science and technology, over the old guard of the big oil industry.

Of the rest of the claims –Black Lives Matter, the fight against sexual harassment and the search for gender equality, among many others–, the very result of the election day is concrete evidence of a society that, standing and fighting, bet on staying on the right side of history.

The real winner

The defeat of the gentleman with the brightly colored toupees represents a triumph for the United States as a country of institutions, a careful balance of interests that make up a common project of 330 million people and a crucial role in an international system in which the progress is measured in the fight against poverty and disease vs. the obscene worship of wealth and contempt for (almost) everyone else.

The two are true faces of the same reality. What fits, for the better, is the emphasis of the central narrative.

But let’s not fool ourselves, Trump and what he represents, was not defeated by Biden, much less by a stagnant and arthritic political class, but by the virus that has cost more than a million deaths, a quarter of them in this country that represents less 5 percent of the world population.

It is necessary to say it:

Despite his outbursts, his tantrums, the bet that, like the famous Pandora’s box that he himself opened 4 years ago when he openly promoted isolationism, the scandalous pursuit of wealth and encouraged racism, xenophobia, authoritarianism, and the rest of the worst prejudices, it is likely that in a less dramatic scenario of the pandemic – almost 240 thousand Americans have died of COVID-19 -, from the pulpit of his Twitter account and his drawer of tricks of manipulation of social media, Trump he might as well have won reelection.

And all that dark interest capital and temptations of historical regression will not be erased for the single return to the White House of the rhetoric of unity and empathy.

At 77, Joe Biden has likely already reached his greatest professional achievement – taking control of the nuclear buttons from Trump – as nothing guarantees that the United States will be able to resume its sense of national unity and social inclusion. In the event that the current trend is not reversed in the courts and with a nation so clearly divided in two, it will hardly be possible to expect the construction of great consensus.

In any case, no one could be fooled, given that his campaign strategy focused precisely on the fact that Biden is not Trump.

The United States is back

Undisputed world champion in the propaganda industry – created by Lenin and perfected by Hitler / Gobbles – the United States succeeded in transforming conventional democracy into a gigantic spectacle that, every 4 years, renews the legitimacy of its main political leadership.

It is a great battle of a very complex network of interests that is expressed in the binary form: red or blue; Democratic party or Republican party; Biden or Trump.

Without being able to escape the main dilemma of each mid-term presidential election – its status as a referendum on the incumbent president – all the talent and all the money in the system are busy building the best possible narrative for its own agenda.

From afar, it looks easy. A country with 250 million voters, in which demographics and levels of educational development give Democrats an increasingly wide advantage, as happened in 2000, 2016, and 2020 itself, a clear majority of the “popular vote Has been / will be, for Albert Gore, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.

But when the factor of the electoral college, an old figure of indirect democracy, and the importance of specific segments of citizens in specific districts of a small number of “hinge” states are included, the scheme becomes much more complicated.

Beyond the work “on the ground” in which the structures of state and municipal governments operate almost always in a shameless way in favor of their candidates, mobilizing voters and manipulating the rules as much as they can, in the last days of the campaign the contest is focused on building the most useful narrative for each candidate:

In 2020, from Trump’s perspective, what it was about was to convince those specific groups that Biden is a socialist, a politician who for 47 years has promoted an extremist social agenda that violates all the values of the true American people.

From Biden’s perspective, the central message is to highlight the deadly disaster in the official handling of the pandemic. Being the country with the most deaths in the world (240,000) and with a terrifying rate of 99,000 new patients every day can be a strong argument.

In addition, as a kind of sub-topic directed at specific groups of voters, there is a complaint for the 540 migrant children who more than a year ago were separated from their parents, confined in cages and now the federal government has no way to reintegrate them with your families.

With the detail of the results – will the Democrats have a majority in the Senate and in the House of Representatives? – a very peculiar interregnum of 2 and a half months will be defined, until the third Monday of January 2021 when, with or without a healthy distance, the new president will protest.

Scenario Two:

The United States, imperial twilight

Donald Trump represents a historic setback with profound and painful consequences. However, the illusion of a nation ruled by an oligarchy in which a white minority defies the rest of the world returned to give him 4 more years in the White House.

With citizen participation of 160 million votes, Trump will use all the strength of the State to claim a victory in a close election marked by the pandemic, a deep economic crisis and the deepest ideological gap within American society since the Civil War.

In a scenario not seen in the last 100 years, two out of every three citizens voted. In-person or from a distance, their participation is, in itself, a powerful message that democracy and populism are the hallmarks of these interesting times.

The rules of the political system of this country – indirect election through groups of delegates by each of the vast majority of its 50 states – were reflected in the partial results, which initially seemed to favor the Democratic candidate, but as they advanced On the night of Tuesday, November 3, they showed a clear trend in favor of the Republican candidate.

In any case, in absolute numbers, Trump won again despite, for the second time, not obtaining a majority in the popular vote.

Consistent with his incongruity, President Trump left the White House gardens around midnight to proclaim a victory not yet officially confirmed at that time, to the delight of those who, four years ago, bought him his exclusive and primitive vision of returning to the country to the supposed greatness of the middle of the last century.

As always happens in modern democratic systems, no victory is final and no defeat forever, the authoritarian and pseudo-fascist temptations of Mr. Trump put at risk both the global leadership of this country, as well as its status as a world reference of a narrative of inclusion and progress.

The real winner

The electoral victory of the gentleman with the brightly colored toupees represents a triumph of the United States as a kind of paradise of savage capitalism in which the supreme value is money, and to obtain it, anything is allowed. All this, versus the rhetoric of empathy and professionalism that Joe Biden represented.

Both are true faces of the same reality, which is very clearly illustrated on the country’s political map: two blue coasts (Democrats) with a high demographic density that concentrate wealth and the generation of knowledge, in the middle of a huge red ocean, with relatively few people, but easier to convert to the preaching of selfishness and voracity that the president himself represents.

But make no mistake, Trump’s victory and what it represents, was not about Biden, much less a stagnant and arthritic political class that he represents, but was about the social effects of the virus that has cost more than a million deaths, the quarter of them in this country that represents less than 5 percent of the world population.

It is necessary to say:

Despite his outbursts, his tantrums, the bet that, like the famous Pandora’s box that he himself opened 4 years ago when he openly promoted isolationism, the search for scandalous wealth and encouraged racism, xenophobia, authoritarianism, and the rest of the worst prejudices, it is likely that in a less dramatic scenario of the pandemic – almost 240 thousand Americans have died of COVID-19 -, from the pulpit of his Twitter account and his drawer of tricks of manipulation of social media, Trump managed to win reelection.

America, heading for the sunset

It is a great battle of a very complex network of interests that are expressed in the binary form: red or blue; Democratic party or Republican party; Biden or Trump.

Without being able to escape the main dilemma of each mid-term presidential election – it’s status as a referendum on the incumbent president – all the talent and all the money in the system are busy building the best possible narrative for its own agenda.

From afar, it looks easy. A country with 250 million voters, in which demographics and levels of educational development give Democrats an ever-widening advantage, as happened in 2000, 2016, and 2020 itself, a clear majority of the “popular vote” has been / will be, for Albert Gore, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.

Either because of the weight of money, or the political talent of those who pull the strings of the great economic interests that allow them to build rules and narratives that have allowed them that in the last 20 years three times, the victory is for those who obtained fewer votes than your opponents.

With the detail of the results – will the Democrats have a majority in the Senate and in the House of Representatives? – a very peculiar second term of a character will be defined that, surely without a healthy distance, will again offer 4 more years of isolation, racism, and “Fake news”.

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