Despite the bluster and much nonsense from the President of the United States, and despite the vulnerability and lack of leadership of the president of Mexico, the forced negotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement is an opportunity to address the two large slopes left outside the table 25 years ago: energy and migration.
In the early 1990’s, when the trade was negotiated, Mexico and the U.S. tried to include the two most relevant issues for both countries in the final agreement:
Petroleum. From the north, the idea was to open the Mexican energy market, especially gas and oil, to the big US oil companies, so that the U.S. balance of power with the great Arab sheiks would change radically.
Migration. From the south, it was about taking advantage of the exponential growth of the Latin universe within the United States. A few years ago, Reagan´s immigration reform that allowed about 2 million migrants to fix their status was approved with the idea of ordering the historically circular flow of Mexican labor in and out the U.S.
But, of course, they failed. According to his testimony, both the former Mexican president, Carlos Salina and his counterparts – first George Bush and then Clinton – recognized that they did not have the political capital necessary to break the great taboos about Mexico sovereignty deep link with the “black gold” under the ground, therefore, the United States rejected labor mobility as a core ingredient within the new treaty.
Thus, with the refusal to incorporate the most valuable commodity of all – the labor force -, NAFTA was born, on January 1, 1994. The three governments tried to sell it as a great lever of modernity and prosperity for their respective societies, and no one bought them.
There were some accomplishments but the fact is that NAFTA has become a great symbol for the champions of isolationism, those who want an America White, Again and a large part of the coalition of interests that brought Mr. Trump to the White House.
Therefore, when the Commerce Department released a seventeen-page document a few days ago in which it announces its objectives for the renegotiation of the FTA, the markets of the three countries reacted positively, and even the peso revalued against the dollar. Instead of killing NAFTA, the road ahead looks closer to the “modernization” to achieve a “win-win-win” scenario.
Regarding the big picture of the negotiation process that starts now, what really matters are the two chapters not included in the first negotiation and probably one more: security: To this end, Mexico’s role as a bridge from external pressures (organized crime, drug trafficking, social violence, and so on) is very clear to the elites of the US military industry.
Migration. In the current historical moment, the subject is discussed under the label of “Labor Mobility”. The nuance is obvious, it is a matter of emphasizing the temporary work programs that are so lacking in an economy with the low rates of unemployment and lack of competitiveness compared to the rest of the world, as is the United States today. From this perspective, the few adults left in Washington´s political elite should build the easy fix for
the several million workers who for many years have formed their families in their new country.
Energy. It took many years and marriage between PAN and PRI elites, but the issue is virtually solved. Energy reform has already occurred, at least in the field of law. From the old principle of the Monroe´s doctrine, in may provide the much-needed support from the energy lobby.
Thus, it could be the ideal scenario for the United States to sell more to its neighbors through more rigid trade rules, in which North American energy security becomes a juicy business banner for some, and finally Through Labor Mobility, the United States reconciles with its roots as a nation of immigrants that thrives thanks to them.
